Building a sustainable future will require major changes to how we power and operate our economies, with inevitable ripple effects on people’s livelihoods. Consider how coal communities could be reshaped when a plant closes, or how auto workers will navigate the shift to electric vehicle manufacturing.
At the same time, transitioning from carbon-intensive industries to more sustainable ones can bring remarkable benefits. Alongside protecting people from increasingly dangerous climate extremes, the transition can create millions of new jobs and boost global GDP, offering new opportunities for growth and development in regions affected by the transition.
A “just transition” seeks to balance these risks and benefits fairly, leaving no one behind.
A growing number of countries have embraced just transition principles in their national climate plans and policies over the last decade. And many are taking concrete steps to achieve their goals, such as working with stakeholders to develop just transition roadmaps or plans, upskilling and reskilling workers in green jobs, or phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. But the question remains: How much progress are countries really making toward a just transition?
Few countries transparently monitor their just transition efforts, making it difficult to assess progress and for communities to hold governments accountable to their promises. But new guidance developed by WRI and the Initiative for Climate Action Transparency (ICAT), informed by select countries that are leading the charge in this area, offers a way forward.
What Does a ‘Just Transition’ Really Mean?
A “just transition” refers to addressing climate change in a fair, just and inclusive manner. This means creating decent work opportunities for all, avoiding risks like unemployment and displacement, and taking an inclusive approach to managing challenges associated with the low-carbon transition.
There are many pieces to this puzzle. A just transition should include “distributive justice,” which calls for the benefits and challenges of the transition to be fairly shared across society; “procedural justice,” which means people should be involved in decision-making processes that impact them; and “restorative justice,” which calls for addressing past harms.
In other words, a just transition is not only about creating new jobs for those whose livelihoods are linked to fossil fuels (though that’s an important component). It can also be about repairing historical inequities, such as unequal pollution burdens. It can mean ensuring social benefits, such as clean transportation or new workforce opportunities, are available for all. It can involve prioritizing social welfare as a key indicator of national progress.
Importantly, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to a just transition. Each community, country and region will face unique challenges in addressing climate change, and the right path forward will vary based on their social, political and geographical contexts.
For example, South Africa — a coal-dependent country that struggles with high unemployment and inequality — views its just transition as an opportunity to “achieve a quality life for all South Africans.” It specifies that the transition should boost social inclusion, reduce poverty, and “[put] people at the centre of decision making, especially those most impacted, the poor, women, people with disabilities, and the youth.” South Africa also calls out opportunities for action, such as building “affordable, decentralised, diversely owned renewable energy systems” and ensuring “sustainable, equitable, inclusive land use for all.”
Scotland, one of Europe’s largest fossil fuel producers, has put a strong focus on employment for its just transition. Scotland highlights the need for “skills training and education that helps to secure good, high value jobs in green industries like low-carbon manufacturing, renewables, and tech,” as well as “job security for those in industries that will play the biggest part in the transition … from those working in petrol stations to those on oil platforms.”
Are Countries Making Progress on Just Transitions?
The idea of a “just transition” gained prominence when it was included in the Paris Agreement in 2015. Since then, it has taken root in national plans and policies.
The number of countries that explicitly include just transition concepts in their climate plans (known as “Nationally Determined Contributions,” or “NDCs”) has increased from just one (South Africa) in 2015 to 66 (as of April 2025). Some countries only refer to the concept in passing while others, such as Chile and the United Kingdom, dedicate entire sections to how they’ll address a just transition. The U.K.’s NDC, for example, notes the creation of an Office for Clean Energy Jobs to help ensure quality and abundant opportunities for its energy workforce.
Countries have also been incorporating just transition in their long-term low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS or “long-term strategies”), which aim to align national development priorities with climate action. Fifty-seven percent of long-term strategies submitted as of September 2023 reference a just transition, though to varying degrees; countries such as Indonesia and Spain offer clear descriptions of just transition efforts, while others lack such details.
Some countries are now moving beyond pledging and planning, developing national strategies and policies that translate just transition principles into concrete action.
- In addition to its Office of Clean Energy Jobs, the United Kingdom launched Skills England, an initiative aimed at upskilling or reskilling workers so they can take advantage of jobs in the clean economy.
- In the United States, past policies have had a strong focus on distributive justice. The Biden Administration’s Justice40 initiative, for example, aimed to channel 40% of federal climate investments into communities that have been disproportionately burdened by pollution (though the future of this initiative is unclear under new leadership).
- In South Korea, the government has noted it will support small and medium-sized enterprises in their low-carbon transitions by enforcing policy measures that facilitate green technology and sustainability.
- In Canada, the government developed a Coal Community Transition Fund to support municipalities and First Nations impacted by coal phaseout in Alberta. Resulting funds have helped pay for things like social and economic impact studies, community transition planning and initiatives to build up local businesses.
In parallel with this, innovative climate finance mechanisms are emerging to help accelerate countries’ just transition efforts. Models such as Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) and Country Climate and Development Platforms are mobilizing finance at the national level to implement green growth at scale. For example, South Africa signed a deal for a JETP in 2021 to mobilize $8.5 billion from partner countries. This has allowed the country to make strategic investments in at-risk value chains, such as the automotive industry and the agriculture industry, to begin the transition towards a cleaner, greener and more equal society.
From Commitment to Measuring Impact
This growth in just transition commitments suggests a promising trend. But how much progress are countries actually making? The answer to this is less clear-cut.
Most countries still lack processes and systems to track progress toward their just transition goals. While this may sound like a “nice to have,” it’s critical for driving real-world change. Clear information on progress can help governments refine their approaches and better align policy and finance with just transition goals. By transparently assessing impacts on jobs, gender equity and other socioeconomic priorities, governments can show national and international stakeholders what’s working well, what could be emulated and what they might need further support on.
Determining how to measure and track this progress can be challenging. Despite over a decade of tracking sustainable development indicators, many countries do not have consistent socioeconomic data tracking mechanisms in place, creating a blind spot when it comes to identifying specific support that could be provided to disadvantaged groups.
However, some countries are starting to make progress on this front.
Nigeria is working toward understanding whether the benefits of climate action are equitably distributed, with a focus on vulnerable populations such as women, youth, Indigenous communities, and people with disabilities. The country’s Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment, with the support of ICAT, worked to develop a monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework for a Just and Gender Inclusive Transition. The framework — which applies to the oil and gas and agriculture, forestry and land use sectors — identified key indicators to track how transition efforts in these areas are affecting vulnerable groups.
South Africa recently developed a monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) framework to support policy makers in understanding national and local progress toward a just transition, including the impacts on specific at-risk sectors. The country identified key indicators, looking at things like racial and gender employment disparities in transition-impacted sectors such as energy; multidimensional poverty levels in coal-dominated communities, such as Mpumalanga; and the percentage of people with vocational training in clean sectors who find employment within six months of graduating.
The new ICAT Just Transitions Monitoring Guide draws lessons from these countries, offering comprehensive guidance for other governments looking to monitor their just transition efforts and better understand where support could be targeted. The guide includes step-by-step processes to develop just transition-related goals and priorities; select targets; identify social, economic and environmental indicators; and analyze and communicate data to a range of stakeholders.
Wherever countries are in defining and formulating their just transition plans, they can start developing monitoring processes and identifying indicators to track and inform these efforts. For instance, with ICAT’s support, Brazil’s environment ministry is utilizing the guide to develop a strategy for monitoring the socio-economic impacts of its National Climate Plan. Countries can leverage this guidance to get a clearer picture of their own progress, build on successes, and identify areas where further support or targeted policies may be needed.
Enabling Just Transitions at Scale
Countries are increasing their commitments to a just transition and working to define what this could look like in their own unique contexts. But without monitoring in place, it will remain difficult for communities to understand whether governments are delivering on their promises.
While monitoring is one of the key factors for ensuring transparency and accountability towards a just transition, it is not the only one. Scaling just transitions across regions, sectors and countries will require significant shifts from both institutions and the public. Governments will need to make a concerted effort to move from developing one-off projects toward fostering consistent, systemic and coordinated action that can enable just transitions at larger scales. This includes working together with other governments (both domestically and internationally) as well as the private sector to scale up financing and promote public-private partnerships.
At every stage, social dialogues need to be built in so that impacted groups are meaningfully involved in the decisions that impact their communities. Only when all groups of people are represented and planned for can we ensure the transition to a more sustainable future is truly just.
