According to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, the planet is predicted to experience temperatures between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900) over the next five years.
Breaching critical thresholds
In 2024, the WMO estimated that the average global temperature was between 1.34°C and 1.41°C higher than pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). The WMO now projects the 20-year average warming for 2015–2034 to reach around 1.44°C above pre-industrial levels.
The report finds a staggering 86 per cent chance that global average temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years, and a one per cent chance of one of those years exceeding 2°C of warming.
There is a 70 per cent chance that the five-year average itself will exceed this 1.5 degree threshold.
The WMO stressed that the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target refers to long-term averages over 20 years, meaning its threshold has not been breached quite yet.
However, these near-term spikes are warning signs of an accelerating climate crisis.
The forecast also highlights regional precipitation impacts, including wetter-than-average conditions expected in the African Sahel, northern Europe, and South Asia. Conversely, the Amazon region could see continued drought.
Arctic warming accelerates
The situation is even more catastrophic in the Arctic than in the rest of the world. The average Arctic temperature over the next five winters (November to March) is expected to be 2.4°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, more than three and a half times the increase in the global average temperature.
Sea ice is expected to keep shrinking, particularly in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas, contributing to rising sea levels and disrupted weather patterns worldwide.
As the world enters this critical window, the UN agency urged climate action to prevent even more dangerous warming in the decades ahead and keep long-term warming below the 1.5°C limit.
