Expert Q&A: What to Expect at the COP30 Climate Summit

While the impacts of climate change are becoming ever-clearer, so too are the benefits of action.

The shift toward technologies like renewable energy and electric vehicles is already cleaning the air and preventing deaths from pollution. Countries investing in greener development models are creating millions of new jobs in areas like power and manufacturing. Clean energy is lowering electricity costs and bringing power to those without.

Yet this transition is not happening nearly fast enough to prevent increasingly dangerous climate impacts, and progress remains uneven. As some countries forge ahead on low-carbon development, others are pulling back. Meanwhile, the cost of climate change continues to rise: Extreme weather caused over $300 billion in damages last year alone.

What we need now is a step change. The world must move from setting targets to delivering them. The upcoming UN climate summit (COP30) in Belém, Brazil is a prime opportunity to do so.

WRI experts have laid out four key areas where COP30 can put the world on track for a safer, more prosperous future:

1. Deliver robust national climate commitments, using detailed global and country plans to close the gap in climate action.
2. Transform the global financial system so that all forms of finance (public and private, domestic and international) support the transition to green, inclusive, resilient economies. Ensure that funds reach the countries and communities that need them most.
3. Step up climate resilience by recognizing that investing in adaptation means investing in growth, security and development; by delivering an ambitious new adaptation finance goal; and by setting clear, measurable indicators for tracking progress.
4. Protect nature, reform food systems and advance Indigenous land rights: three key elements for tackling the interconnected climate and nature crises together.

So, what must COP30 achieve in these areas and beyond to be considered a success? Here’s what our experts are looking for:

Embrace Climate Action as an Economic Strategy

Right now, we face many headwinds for climate action and multilateralism. The U.S. has stepped back, and there are similar discussions of slowing down in parts of Europe. But that’s not the whole story. Across the 50 countries WRI works in, what we see on the ground is that progress is happening.

All of the leaders I speak to from developing countries see this transition as their best economic opportunity, not as a burden. This is especially true in large middle-income countries. China and India are driving record renewable deployment, especially solar. Economic growth driven by clean energy is now even more of a motivator than climate. As COP host, Brazil is also showing how an economy rooted in forest protection, rather than destruction, can create over $8 billion in additional GDP and more than 300,000 new jobs in the Amazon region by 2050. For these countries, economic prosperity, energy security and decarbonization are essentially the same thing, driving the momentum we’re seeing today.

There’s a geopolitical realignment of climate leadership taking place. These middle-income countries played a key role in shaping the outcome [at COP29 in 2024] in Baku. With their large populations, substantial emissions and significant stores of biodiversity, they will continue to play an outsized role in determining the success of the global transition for people, nature and climate. We are watching closely to see what form their leadership will take at COP30.

Accelerate Action on National Climate Commitments, Finance and Adaptation

All countries are due to deliver new national climate plans (known as “nationally determined contributions,” or “NDCs”) this year. Sixty-five countries had formally submitted NDCs as of Oct. 27 — and the current plans fall far short of what’s needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals. Several major emitters are still expected to put forward NDCs ahead of or during COP30, which could help. But a substantial gap remains.

In Belém, leaders must agree on a decisive global response to address this shortfall. This includes: 1) reaffirming the 1.5 degree C goal and developing an “Ambition Framework” which sets out how to close the gap to achieve it; 2) accelerating sector-specific strategies to cut emissions from areas like energy and transport before 2030, reflecting the outcomes of the 2023 Global Stocktake on climate action; and 3) clarifying pathways to achieve countries’ net-zero goals, particularly through updated long-term strategies.

On the finance front, leaders set a target last year to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually from all international sources for developing countries’ climate action by 2035. The forthcoming Baku-to-Belém Roadmap will lay out pragmatic strategies to achieve this goal, showing how countries can get all sources working together as a system to deliver finance for the transition at scale. At COP30, countries must demonstrate how they will turn this plan into action. One promising development to look for is the unveiling of “country platforms”: various country-led approaches that aim to align all sources of finance behind countries’ climate and development plans, policy reforms and investment pipelines.

As for climate resilience, the 2021 “Glasgow pledge” to double adaptation finance expires this year, and countries must decide on a new goal at COP30. Some developing countries are calling for a needs-based target while others are calling to triple adaptation finance by 2030. Our own forthcoming analysis shows that a tripling is achievable by 2035, but it would take increases across all sources (including multilateral development banks’ funds for the poorest, bilateral funds, new sources of concessional finance, and more private finance being mobilized), and finance working better as a system. 

COP30 also offers an opportunity to adopt a set of progress indicators under the Global Goal on Adaptation. This will create a common language to track resilience-building efforts and the support needed. Done right, this can help put resilience at the heart of countries’, communities’ and corporates’ core economic, development and business planning.

Strengthen Pledges that Align Action on Climate and Nature

We won’t meet our climate goals — not on mitigation, not on adaptation — if forests and ecosystems aren’t part of the plan. The science is clear that protecting and restoring nature and transforming food systems are powerful tools to cut emissions, build resilience and reduce climate impacts. The challenge? Mobilizing the resources to scale these solutions.

One initiative to watch at COP30 is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) that will be launched by the Brazilian government. This bold proposal offers predictable, performance-based payments to countries that keep their forests standing, moving away from dependence on philanthropy. Brazil has already pledged $1 billion to the fund, and other countries, such as the U.K., Colombia, Norway and Indonesia, have expressed their support for it. But for the TFFF to work, it needs at least $25 billion to be announced during COP. Whether developed countries will step up is a key question.

Countries should also deliver a strong package to bolster Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ land tenure rights and increase funding to them. While these communities are some of the world’s most effective forest stewards, their territories are under constant and increasing threats, and many lack legal rights to the lands they manage. COP30 can help by delivering an improved Forest Tenure Pledge 2.0 and ensuring that Indigenous Peoples and local communities receive at least 20% of funding from the TFFF.

Equally essential is unlocking investments in sustainable agriculture and land restoration. One development to watch is the launch of the RAIZ (Resilient Agriculture Investment for Net-Zero Land Degradation) initiative. This proposes innovative financial mechanisms to fund the restoration of up to 250 million hectares of degraded land by 2050 — while at the same time increasing global food production.

Alongside RAIZ, complementary initiatives already underway in Brazil (such as the National Productive Forests Program and the Action Plan for Deforestation Prevention and Control in the Amazon) underscore the country’s emerging leadership in integrating action on climate, nature and food systems. Advancing this cohesive agenda more broadly can help ensure that COP30 delivers not only on climate ambition, but also on resilience, equity and shared prosperity.

Under Brazil’s Leadership, Make This the ‘COP of Implementation’

In its role as COP president, Brazil is bringing a clear and ambitious vision to COP30: to make Belém the “COP of Implementation.” The Presidency’s central challenge is to turn promises into real-world action — bridging divides between developed and developing countries, ambition and equity, mitigation and adaptation. The Brazilian Presidency has outlined three priorities that began to be articulated and implemented in 2024 and will culminate in Brazil’s COP Presidency by the end of 2026.

First, Brazil has been working to align climate and economic priorities over the last year through convenings like the G20 and BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa] summit, putting finance at the heart of international climate talks. Brazil also launched the COP30 Circle of Finance Ministers, bringing together representatives from 37 countries who developed concrete recommendations on concessional finance, multilateral bank reform, country investment platforms and regulatory frameworks to unlock capital flows. This work provided key input to the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap and was an important step toward better integrating finance ministers, who are key to scaling up climate finance, into international climate talks.

Second, Brazil is redefining regional leadership, rooted in cooperation between emerging economies. For example, the Rio Declaration at the recent BRICS summit signaled a readiness among emerging economies to lead a resilient, low-carbon transition — from green bonds and tropical forest protection to new trade and carbon accounting initiatives.

Finally, Brazil’s presidency is working to weave together the broader web of actors that drive progress outside of formal COP negotiations. It aims to deliver an “Action Agenda” that can better align all actors behind various climate commitments and processes (like the Global Stocktake, NDCs and long-term strategies), promoting transparency and accountability in climate action.

Other key deliverables to watch for at COP30 under Brazil’s leadership include progress on the Just Transition Work Programme and the Gender Action Plan and the development of indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation.

Follow Along

WRI experts are tracking these issues closely in the lead-up to COP and will be on the ground in Belém during the summit. To learn more about the issues at stake, explore related articles and research, and stay abreast of the outcomes, visit WRI’s COP30 resource hub.