That is the warning from a new report by the UN Spotlight Initiative, which finds that climate change is intensifying the social and economic stresses that are fuelling increased levels of violence against women and girls.
The report finds that extreme weather, displacement, food insecurity, and economic instability are key factors increasing the prevalence and severity of gender-based violence.
These impacts hit hardest in fragile communities, where women already face entrenched inequalities and are more vulnerable to assault.
Every 1°C rise in global temperature is associated with a 4.7 per cent increase in intimate partner violence (IPV), the study finds. In a 2°C warming scenario, 40 million more women and girls are likely to experience IPV each year by 2090. In a 3.5°C scenario, that number more than doubles.
The Spotlight Initiative — a global partnership between the European Union and the United Nations — works to eliminate all forms of violence against women and girls. Its latest findings emphasise that climate solutions must address rights, safety, and justice if they are to be effective or sustainable.
A ‘shadow pandemic’
Gender-based violence is already a global epidemic, the report outlines. Over one billion women — at least one in three — have experienced physical, sexual, or psychological abuse in their lifetime. These figures are likely underestimated, as only around seven per cent of survivors file a formal report to police or medical services.
The Spotlight Initiative identifies a pattern of increased violence in the aftermath of climate disasters.
In 2023 alone, 93.1 million people were affected by weather-related disasters and earthquakes, while an estimated 423 million women experienced intimate partner violence. As climate shocks become more frequent and severe, the risk of violence is projected to rise dramatically.
For example, one study highlighted in the report found a 28 per cent increase in femicide during heatwaves.
Other consequences include higher rates of child marriage, human trafficking, and sexual exploitation, especially in the wake of displacement caused by floods, droughts, or desertification.
Marginalized communities
The burden of this crisis is not evenly distributed. Women and girls living in poverty — including smallholder farmers and those in informal urban settlements — face heightened vulnerability.
Women who are Indigenous, disabled, elderly, or part of the LGBTQ+ community also experience overlapping risks, with limited access to services, shelters, or protections.
In sub-Saharan Africa, projections show that intimate partner violence could nearly triple from 48 million women in 2015 to 140 million by 2060 if temperatures rise by 4°C. However, under a scenario that limits warming to 1.5°C, the share of women affected could decrease from 24 percent in 2015 to 14 percent in 2060.
The report also draws attention to the growing threats against women environmental human rights defenders. Many face harassment, defamation, physical assault, or worse for speaking out against destructive land use or extractive industries.
In Guatemala, women who reported illegal logging were forcibly evicted and had their homes burned. In the Philippines, those opposing mining operations have faced abduction and deadly violence.
An urgent call for gender-inclusive climate policy
Despite the urgency of this issue, only 0.04 per cent of climate-related development assistance focuses primarily on gender equality. The report argues that this gap represents a critical failure to recognize how gender-based violence – or GBV – determines climate resilience and justice.
The Spotlight Initiative calls for GBV prevention to be integrated into all levels of climate policy, from local strategies to international funding mechanisms.
Examples from countries like Haiti, Vanuatu, Liberia, and Mozambique have shown how programmes can be designed to simultaneously address violence and build climate resilience.
These include re-training midwives for jobs in the expanding climate-smart agricultural sector, ensuring that disaster response includes GBV services, and supporting mobile health clinics in disaster zones.
The report stresses that effective climate action must prioritize safety, equity, and the leadership of women and girls.
Ending violence against women and girls, the report concludes, is not only a human rights imperative — it is essential to achieving a just, sustainable, and climate-resilient future.
